How Victoria’s Northern Territory could be the next state to leave the federal Coalition
Victoria could be Australia’s next state in a state-by-state split, with the northern state of Tasmania, a key swing state, potentially being pushed to the right in a Coalition-Labor election, according to a new poll.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics survey of 1,988 voters in Tasmania found that 46 per cent of voters surveyed in the north-west and 51 per cent in the south-west were leaning towards either Labor or the Coalition.
“It is a significant shift and it will be a huge upset for Labor,” said Mr Smith, a Melbourne-based pollster.
“In the Northern Territory, it’s more of a two-horse race, so it is more of an even split between the two major parties.”
The poll of 3,903 voters was conducted from January 6 to 17.
Tasmania is the only major state in Australia to hold an election under a two party system, which allows voters to choose the two main parties.
The survey showed the ALP leading in the state by a comfortable margin of 51 per 100 voters, with Mr Abbott leading Labor by 49 per cent to 42 per cent.
In the northern states of Victoria, Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales, Labor is ahead by a narrower margin of 44 per cent against Mr Abbott’s 45 per cent, while in South Australia the ALP is ahead 51 per per cent over the Liberals by a slim 51 per-cent margin.
Labor has been in power in Tasmania since 2007, when it won a majority government.
The ALP’s support in Tasmania is based on a swing state of 47 per cent which is a bit more than the majority Labor government in Tasmania in 2010, which was led by Tony Abbott’s former party, the Australian Labor Party (ALP).
The Tasmanian ALP has since been led by a coalition of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Tasmanian Greens.
The ALP’s primary target is to win Tasmania’s two seats in the Lower House, but it is also considering a challenge to the seat of Gladstone in Tasmania’s south-east.
According to the survey, Mr Abbott has the support of 56 per cent support among Tasmanians aged 18-29, followed by Mr Hanson at 32 per cent and the Greens at 10 per cent each.
Mr Abbott leads in the Tasmanians who are the only people who have never voted before by a narrow margin of 34 to 31 per cent among Tasmanian voters, while Mr Hanson leads among voters who have voted in the past by 51 per in favour to 49 per against.
Mr Smith said the ALP’s success in Tasmania could be an indicator of its future success in other states.
“We think there is a real sense of a shift in the ALP in terms of how they are looking at Tasmania and where they want to go with their plans,” he said.
Mr Smith said that the ALP had also built an impressive brand in the Northern Territories, with his firm, TAS Polling, tracking the state since 2014.
The firm found that the Tasmanist Liberal Party had the strongest brand in Tasmania, with an estimated 12 per cent voter base.
The Tasmanist Labor Party had an average of 13 per cent from the Tasmanists who had voted before the 2015 election, followed closely by the Tasmanisian National Party at 14 per cent as the state’s third largest party, according the firm.
While Mr Smith believes the ALP will continue to grow in Tasmania and the rest of the country, he said it was time to move on to other states with a higher voter turnout rate.
There were also strong Labor supporters in the poll, with 57 per cent saying they had a “very high” opinion of the party.
“There is no doubt that Labor has an edge in Tasmania,” Mr Smith added.
“But it’s a very different party to the Liberal Party in Tasmania.”
The Greens have also been doing a great job in Tasmania for a while, but they have a bit of a problem.
They are very close to Labor in Tasmania but Labor has got more support in the region than the Greens.
“The poll of Tasmania’s 1.2 million people found that more than half of voters said they were undecided about the federal election.
In Tasmania, 61 per cent said they had not yet made up their mind about voting, with 29 per cent reporting they were still undecided.